Nifty 21 March 2024 Weekly Expiry Analysis

By | March 20, 2024 11:52 pm

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bullish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by shorting 11408 contracts worth 1255 crores, resulting in a increase of 254 contracts in the Net Open Interest. FIIs bought 4199 long contracts and added  11370 short contracts , indicating a preference for covering LONG and adding SHORT positions .With a Net FII Long Short ratio of 0.64 FIIs utilized the market fall to enter Long positions and add short positions in NIFTY Futures. Clients have added 6425  long and 14423 Shorts were added  by them.

As Discuused in Last Analysis

Today we have Sun INgress and Gann 1 Year cycle completing as shown in below video, Price has closed below its 50 SMA and Gann ANgle. We will open gap up today, BUlls and Bears will fight for 21900-21920 range. Fed Policy outcome will come tonight so tommorow we will see a gap up or gap down, If today we close below 21900 probablity of price opening gap down is higher. Overnight positions should be hedged. Today First 15 mins HIgh and LOw will guide for the day.

Nifty has formed one more DOJ and closed below its gann angle as shown below, price is unable to close above 50 SMA and also 21952 suggesting bears are having an upper hand. Price are also trading below Monday Low of 21916, today made high of 21930 and again came down. BUlls and Bears will fight for 21900-21920 range. Tommrow expiry can be very volatile due to Venus Conjunct Saturn Aspect. 

Nifty Trade Plan for Positional Trade ,Bulls will get active above 21906 for a move towards 21981/22055. Bears will get active below 21757 for a move towards 21683/21608

Traders may watch out for potential intraday reversals at 9:15,09:55,10:23,12:07,01:49,03:00 How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

Nifty March Futures Open Interest Volume stood at 1.19 lakh cr , witnessing a liquidation of 7.5 Lakh  contracts. Additionally, the increase in Cost of Carry implies that there was a covering of SHORT positions today.

Nifty Advance Decline Ratio at 27:23 and Nifty Rollover Cost is @22225 closed below it.

Nifty Gann Monthly  Trade level :22278 closed below it.

Nifty has closed below its 20/50 SMA.

Nifty options chain shows that the maximum pain point is at 21800 and the put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.72. Typically, when the PCR open interest ranges between 0.90 and 1.05, the market tends to remain range-bound.

Nifty 50 Options Chain Analysis

The Nifty 50 options chain indicates that the highest open interest (OI) on the call side is at the 21900 strike, followed by 22000 strikes. On the put side, the highest OI is at the 21800 strike, followed by 21700 strikes. This suggests that the market participants are expecting Nifty 50 to remain range between 21800-22000 levels.

According To Todays Data, Retailers Have sold 161  K Call Option Contracts And 138 K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. Additionally, They sold 119K Put Option Contracts And 144  K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Indicating A NEUTRAL  Bias.

In Contrast, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold 324 K Call Option Contracts And 373K Call Option Contracts Were Shorted by them. On The Put Side, FIIs sold 239 K Put Option Contracts And 293 K Put Option Contracts were Shorted by them, Suggesting They Have Turned To Bearish Bias.

In the cash segment, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) sold 2599  crores, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) bought 2667 crores.

Traders who follow the musical octave trading path may find valuable insights in predicting Nifty’s movements. According to this path, Nifty may follow a path of 22467-21836-21205  This means that traders can take a position and potentially ride the move as Nifty moves through these levels.Of course, it’s important to keep in mind that trading is inherently risky and market movements can be unpredictable.

You’ve told yourself that you need to follow your rules, that you need to trade smaller, or that you should avoid trading during certain market conditions or times of day. Still you make the same mistakes, lose money, and build frustration., your attempts at change fail because they lack emotional force.

For Positional Traders, The Nifty Futures’ Trend Change Level is At 22293 . Going Long Or Short Above Or Below This Level Can Help Them Stay On The Same Side As Institutions, With A Higher Risk-reward Ratio. Intraday Traders Can Keep An Eye On 21907, Which Acts As An Intraday Trend Change Level.

Nifty Expiry Range

Upper End of Expiry : 21993

Lower End of Expiry : 21685 

Nifty Intraday Trading Levels

Buy Above 21864 Tgt 21888, 21930  and 21970 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 21824  Tgt 21800, 21777  and 21729 ( Nifty Spot Levels)

Wishing you good health and trading success as always.As always, prioritize your health and trade with caution.

As always, it’s essential to closely monitor market movements and make informed decisions based on a well-thought-out trading plan and risk management strategy. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s crucial to be adaptable and cautious in your approach.

Category: Nifty Price Time Squaring

About Bramesh

Bramesh Bhandari has been actively trading the Indian Stock Markets since over 15+ Years. His primary strategies are his interpretations and applications of Gann And Astro Methodologies developed over the past decade.

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