Nifty 10 March Weekly Expiry Analysis

By | March 9, 2022 11:52 pm

FII bought 8.3 K contract of Index Future worth 678 cores, Net OI has increased by 3.3 K contract 5.8 K Long contract were added by FII and 2.4 K Shorts were covered by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 0.65 so FII used rise to enter long and exit short in Index Futures.

As Discussed in Last Analysis  We got the big move as per expectation as both gann and astro date worked perfectly. Now we will have election results coming on thursday so tommrow can be another volatile session. Now Bulls need to move above 16047  for a move back to 16172/16297. Bears below 15921 can see quick fall towards 15796/15671 Till we are above 16950 bulls can lead towards 200-300 points rally. Got the Big move today and we saw power of double ingress and now tommrow we have Mercury Ingress watch for first 15 mins High and low to capture trend for the day. Now Bulls need to move above 16495 for a move back to 16622/16748. Bears below 16369 can see quick fall towards 16242/16116.

 

Intraday time for reversal can be at 9:39/11:35/12:35/1:37/2:19/2:58    How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

MAX Pain is at 16200 PCR at 0.83 , Rollover cost @16997  closed below it. 

Nifty March Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.28 Cores with addition of 0.75 Lakh with increase in cost of carry suggesting LONG positions were added today.

Talking about supports and resistance based on OI at this stage is not quite relevant because, with the kind of Voaltality going on, no strike is safe as 1 day we are down 300 points and other day 300 point up.The option table is undergoing a real transformation – with each day one CE level is targeted with huge volumes of writing and the strike is giving way to much lower strikes.

My observation is – Institutions short – Big Bears Short – Market Falls – Big Bears Cover – Pigs Short -Institutions Cover – Market Rallies for the Pigs to get slaughtered.

PCR below 0.9 and above 1.3 lead to trending moves, and in between leads to range bound markets. So, after all the mayhem, we are probably returning to sanity is what is indicated by the rising PCR. Got the short term bounce.

Nifty is extremely pessimistic -so be prepared for a short term bounce. I do not recommend buying of options at this moment, because the volatality and hence the premium of options is very high. So, it is difficult to make money even if the market moves in our expected direction. Deal with futures or option writing for some days. If it is a must that you have to only deal with buying of options then resort to day trading. 🙂 Got the short term bounce.

Retailers have sold 137 K CE contracts and 92.4 K short  CE contracts were covered by them on Put Side Retailers bought 529 K PE contracts and 437 K  PE  contracts were shorted by them suggesting having BEARISH  outlook,On Flip Side FII sold 25.9 K CE contracts and 53 K CE were shorted by them, On Put side FII’s bought 70.9 K PE and 37 K PE were shorted by them suggesting they are having  to BEARISH Bias

FII’s sold  4818 cores and DII’s bought 3275 cores in cash segment.INR closed at 76.79

For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 16351 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 16222 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level.

  Buy Above 16555 Tgt 16585, 16620 and 16653 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 16400  Tgt 16366, 16333 and 16285 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry : 16653

Lower End of Expiry :16182 

As always I wish you maximum health and trading success

Category: Daily Nifty Outlook and Trend

About Bramesh

Bramesh Bhandari has been actively trading the Indian Stock Markets since over 15+ Years. His primary strategies are his interpretations and applications of Gann And Astro Methodologies developed over the past decade.

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