Weekly F&O Expiry: Nifty Analysis

• FII  bought 364 contract of Index Future worth 44 cores, Net OI has increased by 1.2 K contract 794 Long contract were added by FII and 430 Shorts were added by FII. Net FII Long Short ratio at 2.1 so FII used fall to enter longs and enter shorts.

• As discussed in  Last Analysis  Bears were able to do 1 target on downside and closed just tad below 17362 we saw bearish move in intraday but again saw buying from lower levels. Bulls need to move above 17430 for a move towards 17500/17576/17630. Bears will get active below 17360 for a move towards 17297/17232/17166/17101. Low made was 17254 so bears were able to do 1 target on downside. Now Bulls need to break 36864 for  a move towards 36968/37064/37160. Bulls need a close above 17385 for a move towards 17451/17517/17584. Bears will have chance below 17304 for a move towards17239/17173/17107.  We have holiday on 10 Sep and on that day we have multiple Ingrees Helio Mercury moving in Capricon and Venus moving in Scorpio suggesting Friday can be crucial for Global Markets so carry overnight position cautiously Watch for 2:34 Reversal time to carry positions. 

• Intraday time for reversal can be at  9:18/10:05/11:14/1:11/2:08/2:34  How to Find and Trade Intraday Reversal Times

• Let me put an interesting observation, we closed the day more or less where we opened. In between, 100 point swing happened on downside but swift recovery. So, traders should have made money – and longer term players’ position remained the same. Exactly the same is indicated by FII stats. They did a lot of day trading – without changing any thing in the longer term perspective. Whoever, did the counter trading to that would have lost heavily.

• Nifty Sep Future Open Interest Volume is at 1.49 Cores with liquidation of 0.76 Lakh with increase in cost of carry suggesting SHORT position were covered today.

• There is total OI of 5.1  Cores on the Call side and 4.47 Cores on the Put side. More OI on Call side suggesting Bearish sentiment in market players.

• The Option Table data indicates decent support at 17300 and reasonable resistance at 17500.

• Retailers have bought 11.1 K CE contracts  and Sold 53.4 K CE contracts on Put Side Retailers bought 295 K PE contracts and 222 K PE contracts were shorted by them suggesting having bearish outlook,On Flip Side FII sold 77.6 K CE contracts and 25.5 K shorted CE were covered by them, On Put side FII’s sold 30 K PE and 19.7 K PE were shorted by them suggesting they have a turned to neutral to bullish Bias.

• FII sold 802 crore and DII sold 0.6 cores. USD Closed at 73.67

• For Positional Traders Stay long till we are holding Trend Change Level 17098 and stay short below it. That will help you stay on the side of Institutions and which has a greater risk-reward ratio. For Intraday Traders 17344 will act as a Intraday Trend Change Level. 

Buy Above 17377 Tgt 17400, 17424 and 17460 (Nifty Spot Levels)

Sell Below 17341 Tgt 17318, 17285 and 17254(Nifty Spot Levels)

Upper End of Expiry : 17484

Lower End of Expiry : 17222