The Last week promised to be an eventful week but turned out to be an non event week.
RBI did not pulled any trigger on Repo cut and further putting court in Government of India court asking them to cut the fiscal deficit and move towards fiscal consolidation.
If you do not take steps towards fiscal consolidation we will not cut rate was the clear cut signal. Market reacted negatively on that day!!
Next day being the Budget day also proved uneventful with no major reforms getting into picture. But on Whole my personal Opinion is Budget was quiet balanced with more focus on fiscal consolidation.Reduction of Fiscal Deficit from 5.9% to 5.1% would be a tremendous Job if achieved.
Market Reactions from the coming week after Budget Day from past 4 years is presented below.
So as per above table Next Week will prove to be trending week looking at past data.
Nifty Hourly Chart
On Hourly charts Nifty is approaching the gap filling area of 5292-5220. Friday’s low of 5305 Break of 5305 and 5292 will start the gap filling process.
Trading below 50 SMA@5385 will be bearish in short term.
Next we will be approaching the Quarter ending and Indian MF ,Hedge Fund manager Bonus time. They would like to increase the NAV of their funds to get more bonus,To Increase NAV they need to deploy cash and hence we can see Nifty market rising. This is an Observation from past data,Please do not trade on this blindly get a confirmation from system you follow before taking any bet on Nifty.
Next week 5220 and 5160 also becomes support for any correction to comes. On Upside most important resistance becomes 5385.
Nifty Fibo Chart
Fibo ratio from 5169-5499 if we take 38.2% comes at 5295. Break of 5295-92 will lead to an immediate sell off till 5230 levels.
On Weekly chart Nifty closed down by 0.3% and 4th week in a row. This week can be a potential trending week ie. move of atleast 2-3%. Weekly trend is down till it closes below 5452.
As i have mentioned in above chart red circles are Supply zone and Blue Circles are demand zone. Nifty reacted from demand zone.
Nifty Monthly high id 5499 and Monthly low 5170. Break of 5170 will break the lower trendline shown in green and open gates for lower traget of 5020 and 4900.
Nifty Trend Deciding Level:5364
Let me go by Disclaimer these are my personal views and trade taken on these observation should be traded with strict Sl
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I happened to see the historical data of nifty index for the past 7 years on nseindia website and what I found is that in the month of MARCH the market has always ended on a positive note of atleast 100-150 points
from its closing on the first day of the month..
Let me know your reaction.
Yes sir. It happens because of NAV porp up game so that fund manager can get more bonuses.